The 49 metrics that actually matter for a suburb scorecard

Why 49

Why not 12, why not 200? The number isn't sacred. It's the count we landed on after multiple iterations of removing metrics with low signal-to-noise ratio + adding ones primary-source data could meaningfully measure. Each metric has to clear three tests:

1. A primary-source dependency. Every metric resolves to ATO, ABS, APRA, RBA, state land records bulk transactions, NSW Fair Trading bonds-lodgement, public records, ASIC, OSM, or news-RSS. No commercial-aggregator black-box scores. No analyst-opinion overlays. 2. A confidence state. Every metric returns one of: primary (live data, current period), derived (computed from primary inputs), provisional (early signal, may revise), conflict (two primary sources disagree, surfaced for review), stale (data older than the metric's freshness window). Readers see the confidence chip alongside the number. 3. A thin-market gate. SAL-canonical suburbs with under ~30 transactions / 12 months get a thin-market suppression on transaction-derived metrics. The gate is non-negotiable. Small-sample statistics are the single largest source of bad property-investment advice.

If a metric can't clear all three tests, it doesn't make it onto a scorecard. Anything that does becomes a citation chip the reader can drill into.

The 49 categories

Grouped into the editorial buckets the Suburb Scout uses when reading a scorecard:

Demand depth (8 metrics)

How many people want to live + rent here, today and projected. Strong demand depth is the single biggest input to capital growth + rental yield resilience.

• Vacancy rate. Bonds-lodgement-derived (NSW Fair Trading equivalent in each state), monthly cadence.
• Days-on-market. state land records + scraped listings, 3-month moving average.
• Listing volume vs trailing-12m mean. Tracks supply pulse against own baseline.
• Population growth (net). ABS Census + ERP intercensal estimates, annual.
• Net interstate migration. ABS, regional 12-month rolling.
• Net overseas migration. ABS quarterly, settled-by-postcode.
• Median household size + age structure. ABS Census, 5-year cadence.
• Workforce-presence index. ATO postcode tax data + OSM employment-zone proximity.

Supply pulse (6 metrics)

How much new stock is coming online + how much is leaving. Big new-supply pipelines depress capital growth for 3-5 years even in strong-demand suburbs.

• Planning approvals (rolling 12-month). Public planning records + state planning portal.
• Construction completions (rolling 12-month). ABS building activity.
• Demolitions. Council records.
• Adopted local-environment-plan amendments. State planning portal text scrape.
• Subdivision rate. state land records lot-creation events.
• Stock-on-market vs sales rate. Derived; > 6 months = oversupplied, < 2 = undersupplied.

Yield + cashflow (8 metrics)

Direct rental return + the cost stack that erodes it. For investors, this is where positively-geared vs negatively-geared lines get drawn.

• Median asking rent. Bonds-lodgement primary; agent-listing scraped fallback for low-volume.
• Median achieved rent. Bonds-lodgement primary, lagged 60 days.
• Rental yield (gross). Median rent × 52 ÷ median price.
• Rental yield (net). Gross less management (~7-8%), maintenance reserve (~1.5%), vacancy (~52 weeks × vacancy rate), insurance, rates, strata, land tax.
• Yield trend (3-year). Derived; rising yield = rents outpacing prices, falling = prices outpacing rents.
• Council rates. Council schedule + median property value.
• Strata levies (where applicable). Body corporate filings + sales-listings disclosure.
• Land tax exposure. State revenue threshold + median land value.

Capital growth (7 metrics)

Past + projected growth in property value. Not a guarantee (long-term cycles + outliers complicate any forecast) but each metric measurably improves the read.

• Median sale price (3-month). state land records bulk transactions.
• 3-year + 5-year + 10-year compound annual growth rate. Derived.
• Growth vs capital-city benchmark. Relative-strength signal.
• Growth vs regional benchmark (where rural). Relative-strength signal.
• Price dispersion (high/low quartile vs median). Narrow dispersion = mature market.
• Sale-to-list-price ratio. Gauge of vendor-buyer power balance.
• Repeat-sale index. Same property's resale price gain, removes mix bias.

Demographic mix (5 metrics)

Who lives here. Demographic momentum is a 5-10 year leading indicator for gentrification + price growth.

• Income distribution. ATO postcode tax statistics, annual.
• Education attainment. ABS Census.
• Owner-occupier vs renter ratio. ABS Census.
• Family vs lone-person dwelling. ABS Census.
• Median age + age-band shift. ABS Census + ERP intercensals.

Risk overlay (6 metrics)

What erodes long-term capital value. Climate + crime + insurance-zone risk doesn't show up in median-price tables but does show up in 10-year buy-vs-hold decisions.

• Flood zone classification. State SES + insurance-zone overlays.
• Bushfire-attack-level (BAL). State SES + AS 3959 zoning.
• Coastal-erosion + sea-level-rise classification. State geoscience overlays.
• Crime rate (residential burglary, assault). State police statistics.
• Insurance premium index. Derived from APRA's insurance-claims data + zone overlays.
• Climate adaptation risk score. Composite of the above + Climate Council + Bureau of Meteorology trends.

Amenity + infrastructure (5 metrics)

The location-level liveability factors that compound into both rent + price.

• Distance to CBD + nearest employment hub. OSM routing.
• Public transport accessibility (walkable + frequent). OSM + state transport timetables.
• School-catchment quality. State DOE NAPLAN + Year-12 results.
• Hospital + medical proximity. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare hospital register.
• Retail + cafe density. OSM POI count, normalised by population.

Ownership + market structure (4 metrics)

Who owns the area + how that profile changes the buying experience.

• Investor concentration (% of stock). ABS Census + state Land Registry filter.
• Foreign ownership share. FIRB approval data + state-level surcharge filings.
• Trust ownership share. State Land Registry + ATO trust statistics.
• Vacant-property rate. Census enumerated absent of usual residents + state revenue (where vacancy levy applies).

What we don't include

A few metrics that look like they should be in any scorecard but aren't, with reasons:

• Listing-portal "estimated value" numbers. No primary-source dependency; methodology not public; variance ±15-30%.
• Single-analyst quarterly forecasts. No held/missed grading; methodology rarely reproducible.
• Buyer's-agent "growth tips." Marketing-tier opinion; no public outcome ledger.
• Generic "lifestyle" or "school zone" star ratings. Subjective + mostly aggregate from things we already measure individually.

What changes the scorecard

The 49 are stable but not frozen. We re-validate quarterly during the methodology refresh:

• New primary-source data feeds become available (e.g. council climate-risk overlays getting standardised).
• Existing metrics' signal-to-noise changes (e.g. vacancy reporting becomes more reliable in a state).
• The thin-market gate threshold gets re-tuned against arrears + rental-volatility outcomes.

When metrics shift in or out, it's documented in the methodology paper update + cross-referenced in the public ledger.

Read further

• Methodology paper. Sources, confidence states, ledger rubric.
• Suburb Scout. The specialist who reads suburbs against this scorecard.
• Glossary. Every metric term, defined + cited.
• Why publish a public prediction ledger. Why we grade outcomes in public.

Sources (representative, not exhaustive)

• ABS Census + ERP: https://www.abs.gov.au/census
• ABS Building Activity: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction
• ATO Tax Statistics (postcode): https://www.ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics/in-detail/taxation-statistics
• APRA APG 223 + insurance data: https://www.apra.gov.au/
• AIHW hospital register: https://www.aihw.gov.au/
• Bureau of Meteorology climate data: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
• state land records bulk transactions (per-state)
• State SES BAL + flood zoning (per-state)
• OSM (OpenStreetMap) POI + routing data